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The Standard for Reopening States is Rigged

The new White House standard for reopening the economy in various states is rigged to severely prolong the economic strangulation under the current lockdowns. The criterion has been defined as a 14-day period of declining volume in new cases or a 14-day period of declining rates of positivity of those tested.

Testing is ramping up in every state, which if the epidemiologists are right, will produce a lower percentage rate of positivity on the tests since the curve has been bent.  But there is a new factor which throws all of these calculations off so far off that the 14-day standard should be abandoned.

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Drive through screening (US Air Force photo)

That factor is the likelihood that there are an enormous number of asymptomatic cases out there that have never been counted (nor tested so far). Early estimates based on sampling in Iceland suggested maybe half of all those infected were asymptomatic. Dr. Fauci estimated 25% of cases might be asymptomatic. Now we have much higher estimates. The Stanford sampling study in Santa Clara County testing for antibodies, a similar study in Los Angeles County, a study in a town in Germany, a study just done in New York State, and testing in an Ohio prison and a Boston homeless shelter, suggest the number of asymptomatic cases are in fact  many multiples of the number of cases already tested positive so far.

This is good news and bad news. The good news is it means many more people have already had the virus or are experiencing it in very mild or totally asymptomatic fashion. This means the real death rate for the virus has a much larger denominator when you divide total deaths by total infected, and hence a lower death rate. It means the country is closer to herd immunity in some places, assuming having had the virus provides some future immunity, so far not known.

The bad news is that it could also mean that some of these many asymptomatics could still be spreading the virus, since how long someone can be a spreader is also not known.

However, because of the now rapid ramp up in testing, which has been the battle cry and demand  of epidemiologists and critics of the steps taken by the Administration so far, many of these asymptomatics will now get tested and their positive infection status added to the daily count of infected in states across the country.  Many of those tested will have antibody tests which do not tell you when someone was infected. That is a huge problem for compiling a daily number of new positive cases.

This almost certainly means that even if the real curve of the number of newly infected in a state has leveled off, the change in the daily testing volume and the huge pool of asymptomatics  and others testing positive with the antibody test available for testing will provide a big boost to case counts and drive them up.  It could also drive up the positivity rate if many of those who tested positive with the antibody test had the virus a while back.

As a result, this will cause states to delay ending their strict quarantines and partially reopening their economies, since the number of new positive cases reported each day is going up, rather than down.  Asymptomatics may test positive on either an antibody test or the standard virus identification test or both. Those who test positive on antibody tests may not be a risk to anyone, but their number will not be separated from others who test positive and will impede a state from showing the decline in overall new case volume that is the current standard.

There are now many voices calling for a relaxation of the lockdowns in place. If the test for doing that is the one outlined so far, 14 days of declining case volumes or declining positivity test rates, the tests seem rigged, and states will have an excuse for not doing so, claiming that they are following the advice of the scientists, and the epidemiologists who established the 14 day standard.  The cost of delaying reopening parts of the economy or sections of the country because states cannot meet a standard that may be impossible to meet could be a death blow to the American economy and many of the people out of work and businesses which are shut down.

The new White House standard for reopening the economy in various states is rigged to severely prolong the economic strangulation under the current lockdowns. The criterion has been defined as a 14-day period of declining volume in new cases or a 14-day period of declining rates of positivity of those tested.

Testing is ramping up in every state, which if the epidemiologists are right, will produce a lower percentage rate of positivity on the tests since the curve has been bent.  But there is a new factor which throws all of these calculations off so far off that the 14-day standard should be abandoned.

Drive through screening (US Air Force photo)

That factor is the likelihood that there are an enormous number of asymptomatic cases out there that have never been counted (nor tested so far). Early estimates based on sampling in Iceland suggested maybe half of all those infected were asymptomatic. Dr. Fauci estimated 25% of cases might be asymptomatic. Now we have much higher estimates. The Stanford sampling study in Santa Clara County testing for antibodies, a similar study in Los Angeles County, a study in a town in Germany, a study just done in New York State, and testing in an Ohio prison and a Boston homeless shelter, suggest the number of asymptomatic cases are in fact  many multiples of the number of cases already tested positive so far.

This is good news and bad news. The good news is it means many more people have already had the virus or are experiencing it in very mild or totally asymptomatic fashion. This means the real death rate for the virus has a much larger denominator when you divide total deaths by total infected, and hence a lower death rate. It means the country is closer to herd immunity in some places, assuming having had the virus provides some future immunity, so far not known.

The bad news is that it could also mean that some of these many asymptomatics could still be spreading the virus, since how long someone can be a spreader is also not known.

However, because of the now rapid ramp up in testing, which has been the battle cry and demand  of epidemiologists and critics of the steps taken by the Administration so far, many of these asymptomatics will now get tested and their positive infection status added to the daily count of infected in states across the country.  Many of those tested will have antibody tests which do not tell you when someone was infected. That is a huge problem for compiling a daily number of new positive cases.

This almost certainly means that even if the real curve of the number of newly infected in a state has leveled off, the change in the daily testing volume and the huge pool of asymptomatics  and others testing positive with the antibody test available for testing will provide a big boost to case counts and drive them up.  It could also drive up the positivity rate if many of those who tested positive with the antibody test had the virus a while back.

As a result, this will cause states to delay ending their strict quarantines and partially reopening their economies, since the number of new positive cases reported each day is going up, rather than down.  Asymptomatics may test positive on either an antibody test or the standard virus identification test or both. Those who test positive on antibody tests may not be a risk to anyone, but their number will not be separated from others who test positive and will impede a state from showing the decline in overall new case volume that is the current standard.

There are now many voices calling for a relaxation of the lockdowns in place. If the test for doing that is the one outlined so far, 14 days of declining case volumes or declining positivity test rates, the tests seem rigged, and states will have an excuse for not doing so, claiming that they are following the advice of the scientists, and the epidemiologists who established the 14 day standard.  The cost of delaying reopening parts of the economy or sections of the country because states cannot meet a standard that may be impossible to meet could be a death blow to the American economy and many of the people out of work and businesses which are shut down.

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17 comments

  1. I’m guessing that the individual who established the formula for opening the economy is the same one who originated the virus (Dr. Fauci provided the funding required to complete the research at the Wuhan lab). He is also the one who has been guiding our fight against the virus and who has suggested the shutdown as a device to slow the number of cases. As it happens, he is also fast buddies with Hillary Clinton, George Soros and Bill Gates-all advocates of the new world order. Everything this man has done has weakened the president’s chances for reelection (coincidence…I think not). Someone in the government is totally remiss if an investigation of Fauci and his actions has not already started. I think what we are seeing is the result of a “Get Trump 3.0” program and so far this one seems to be more effective than it’s precursors-but success is dependent upon keeping the thing going as long as possible.

    • Anyone who has ever studied statics knows you can skew the results of any test by including what you want to reinforce and discarding anything you don’t want to skew the results in your desired direction. We need a totally different way to determine when to end lockdown. The Dems are using this to destroy our economy and force the “new world order” or just plain socialism!

  2. Liberally Disgusted

    This is probably thanks to Fauci and Birx – the two people I hold most responsible for the chaos that is happening today.

    Mr. President, please start listening to experienced medical voices that don’t seem to have an ulterior agenda. There are many out there that are speaking out and the general opinion of Dr. Fauci does not seem to be good nor do they think highly of Birx and Redfield.

  3. The problem here in Kansas are the packing plants that are not being allowed to close. It’s a vicious circle. Two weeks ago we didn’t have any cases now as of 4/29/20. Ford county is second behind Johnson county with 544 cases with Johnson county at 583. It all started in the packing plants at least here in ford county.

  4. I’m thinking there truly is an agenda. People that do not want to start ending the quarantine have issues with this country to begin with. I am no longer drinking the koolaid, and I certainly do not trust a man like Bill Gates who does experiments to replace transportation, health care and education. Do we want to live in a society where there are a few private actors controlling our data. AI services. Virtual or mixed reality was just released by Microsoft called The Life. He used artist Marina Abramovic -who would trust somebody that associates with her. Crazy lady. “out of Shadows, may help see the light. Lady gaga “I hate the truth” also involved. He also worked with Epstein, and Rothchilds. All starting to make sense why Bill would want this. Very similar when Dr. Fauci complimented Ted Ross Addenaum -former terrorist in the genocidal things he did in Ethiopia. Also would never take a vaccine from someone who wants to control the population.

    • Everything you said I’ve been thinking exactly the same thing or something really wrong with Bill gates and Fauci inverted more Fauci are some real problem he’s putting the fear of God and everybody ate the whole thing now is this is so political about their agenda is it it’s terrifying anyway and how did you get the message to President Trump he’s got a no rue doesn’t want to look bad again if he fires in but he’s got a fire him this is very deep stuff here but it’s also right under our nose and I’ve been saying oh everything you all are saying because it seems kind of obvious and now he’s talking all over CNN and saying some kind of strange more fear I think anyway I don’t know what to do even pray a lotPray a lot thank you Donna Dillon

      • Samuel Crabtree

        Donna – Your comment might be understandable if you used punctuation – periods between sentances, capitalize the first word of a sentance, etc.

  5. I agree with Thoroughly Disgusted dated April 29, 2020 at 6:01pm

  6. Normand Doyon Sr.

    I also agree with the above comments.

    • Where did the so titled Dr. Fauci come from? From a witness protection program? Almost not tongue in cheek.

  7. These commentators combined are absolutely correct. False evidence appearing real continues to be foisted by the fear mongers.

  8. I find it more believable that we have a “Wag the Dog” phenomenon here. The Make America Great Again program is touted by the Tea Party types to have been a great success, when it has been nothing more than the Federal Reserve trying again to inflate the economy out of its slow growth. That only works for so long. Last year David Stockman published “Peak Trump” which exposed the fraud and predicted a serious recession. The Covid 19 Pandemic came along just in time to avoid the necessity of initiating a different International distraction by the Administration.

      • CHINA WUHUNG VIRUS. BIO-WEAPON USED FOR GENOCIDE. FACTS. BILL GATES & FAUCI ARE IN SUPPORT OF CHINA. BOTTOM LINE!!! DEMOCRATS ARE NOTHING BUT LIARS. THEY ARE TRYING TO USE THIS VIRUS AS A WAY TO GET RID OF OUR PRESIDENT. BOTTOM LINE!!!

    • And you would be wrong. Our President is trying to do completely AWAY with the Federal Reserve. And Trump cannot stand Dr. Fauci. He’s giving him rope to hang himself Nancy Pelosi & the Democratic Party are going to try & push payments to ILLEGALS the 1st of next week. And they are wanting more Stimulus checks in the amount of 2000 dollars for single people & 2400 dollars for couples. But OUR President is saying NO to more stimulus payments. AND THE MAJORITY OF US ARE HAPPY.

      Why??? Because we feel just like OUR President feels. It’s time to OPEN the country back up. The Democrat governors are ALREADY getting used to starting up Socialism before they have a Democrat President. It’s all about POWER to them. I live in La. And our governor has pushed his weight around too long now. So he is NOW being SUED by different Republican officials in different cities because EVERYONE here in La. are ready to get back to work. Dr. Fauci & that Byrx woman are telling people OUR country will NEVER be normal again.

      But the MAJORITY of us all over OUR country are sick & tired of this mess. And we believe OUR President is going to start pushing here in La. if Edwards tries to EXTEND his lockdowns past May. 15th. If the Democrats want SOCIALISM so bad; we say MOVE TO VENEZUELA. And LEAVE OUR COUNTRY ALONE.

      “TRUMP TRAIN 2020 – NO JOE, MOOCH, HILLARY OR ANY OTHER DEMOCRAT”

  9. Alan, using the word China is going to get you attacked as a racist. A few years ago, criticizing our president was automatic racism. Now, Trump is attacked for doing and not doing. It might very well be racist but he is an european-american… if there is such an animal immune to racial discrimination.

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